Homicide mortality trends in Mexico, 1990-2022: analysis by inflection points and social inequality

In Mexico, an increase in homicides has been reported in recent years, negatively impacting life expectancy. The objective of the study was to identify the trend in homicide rates in Mexico and estimate the inequality gaps according to social backwardness at the state level during the period 1990-2022. An ecological study was carried out based on a joinpoint analysis where the annual percentage change in trend in homicide rates was estimated. Measures of inequality were estimated at the national and state levels. The results show a higher homicide rate among men compared to women. There was a significant reduction in the annual percentage change in homicide mortality rates at the national level in the period 1994-2001 (CPA=-8.31) and the largest increase in the CPA was recorded in the period 2007-2010 (CPA=37.33), as of 2018 there is a slight reduction in homicides. Sonora and Colima stood out for the increase in homicide rates at the end of the period studied, while Mexico City and Tabasco showed a significant reduction. It is necessary to identify the underlying social, political, economic and cultural determinants to establish prevention and care strategies.