Bladder Cancer Burden across Global, Regional, and National Levels (1990-2021): Associations with Sociodemographic...

Bladder cancer (BC), the most prevalent type of cancer in the urinary system globally, presents a substantial health challenge worldwide. Although the global burden of disease (GBD) study provides valuable insights, thorough analyses of BC are still scarce. This study utilizes the latest GBD dataset to examine the impact of BC, combining current statistics with projections for 2036.

We analyzed data from the 2021 GBD Study, concentrating on BC-related metrics: prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across 204 countries and territories, categorized into 21 GBD regions and 5 sociodemographic index (SDI) regions based on the SDI. The data analysis encompassed calculations of relative change, annual percentage change (APC), and estimated APC (EAPC). This research utilized the Spearman algorithm to assess the correlation between disease burden and SDI, conducted age-period-cohort analysis, and performed decomposition analysis. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was employed to forecast trends for the subsequent 15 years.

From 1990 to 2021, the global prevalence of BC cases surged by 127.65%, exceeding 3.02 million, even though age-standardized rates declined. A comparable trend was observed in mortality and DALYs, with absolute numbers increasing while age-standardized rates declined. Gender data from 1990 to 2021 revealed a consistent male predominance in BC prevalence, despite decreasing rates for both sexes. A notable association exists between the disease burden of SDI and BC, and the age-period-cohort model has revealed additional insights. Decomposition analysis suggests that population growth is the primary factor influencing the burden of BC disease, yet predictive analysis projects a decrease in age-standardized disease burden over the next 15 years.

Our analysis reveals a complex interplay between sociodemographic factors and BC trends, underscoring the need for targeted healthcare interventions. Despite progress, vigilance and continued research are crucial for effective BC management globally.