Climate Change Projected Effects on Hamatocaulis vernicosus Occurrence in Romania

Hamatocaulis vernicosus is a pleurocarpous moss of conservation concern, listed in Annex II of the EU Habitats Directive due to its significant and ongoing decline across Europe. H. vernicosus is also listed as 'Vulnerable' on the Red List of Romanian Bryophytes. Despite its protected status, the species remains under-recorded in Romania, where many potentially suitable habitats have yet to be surveyed. The ecosystems, classified as Transition mire and quaking bog (NATURA 2000 code: 7140), are wet peatlands with oligo- to mesotrophic conditions and a pH of 5.0-7.5 H. vernicosus is recorded in 58 Romanian locations (10 confirmed by us, 5 new), spanning the Continental and Alpine bioregions. Models showed good performance (AUC 0.79-0.83; TSS 0.54-0.59), with distribution mainly shaped by mean annual temperature and temperature range, and secondarily by precipitation. The species favors cold, stable climates with high seasonal rainfall. Even though the number of localities reported for this species has increased in recent years, this does not indicate an improvement in its conservation status, but rather is an effect of recent recording efforts. To support targeted conservation planning, an ensemble species distribution model was developed in order to predict the suitable habitats of H. vernicosus across Romania. Both climate models project major range losses for the varnished hook-moss: ~30% by 2050 and ~40-60% by 2100, depending on the scenario. Losses are gradual under SSP245 but more abrupt under SSP585, with increased fragmentation, especially between the Eastern and Southern Carpathians. By integrating field observations with predictive climate change modeling, our study brings critical insights applicable to the conservation of H. vernicosus and the unique peatland ecosystems it relies on.