Population Dynamics and Potential Distribution of the Four Endangered Mangrove Species in Leizhou Peninsula China

Background: Mangrove plants are a core component of coastal ecosystems, directly influencing biodiversity and shoreline stability. However, in recent years, due to the combined pressures of human activities and climate change, nearly half of the mangrove species in China are endangered and require urgent conservation measures. This study analyzed the population dynamics and stress factors affecting four rare and endangered mangrove species-Lumnitzera racemosa, Ceriops tagal, Barringtonia racemosa, and Heritiera littoralis-on the Leizhou Peninsula, providing scientific evidence for their conservation. Methods: Field surveys and plot investigations were conducted, with population dynamics and structure quantified using static life tables, survival rates, mortality rates, and disappearance curves. Additionally, the MaxEnt species distribution model and GIS technology were applied to predict the potentially suitable distribution areas. Results: The findings revealed that the population of L. racemosa exhibits an atypical pyramid structure, with few seedlings and constraining population growth potential. The C. tagal population follows an irregular pyramid structure, with abundant seedlings but fewer mature individuals, suggesting a rapid decline followed by stability. The B. racemosa population also follows an irregular pyramid structure, with many seedlings and a greater proportion of middle-aged and older individuals, facing the risk of early mortality. The H. littoralis population is also in decline, with few seedlings and a severe risk of local extinction. MaxEnt model predictions indicated that temperature is the primary environmental factor, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values for all species exceeding 0.8, indicating strong predictive ability. The predicted potential suitable areas showed an expanded distribution range compared to current distribution points, providing valuable references for species introduction and propagation. Conclusions: This study described the population structure of the four mangrove species on the Leizhou Peninsula and assessed their primary stress factors. The results provided a theoretical basis for the conservation and restoration of endangered mangrove species and offer important guidance for developing effective conservation strategies in southern China.