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Entropy signatures of interstate aggression on social cohesion dynamics
Jais Adam-Troian1, Nathalie Bauchet2, Arsalane Chouaib Guidoum3
1School of Social Sciences, Heriot-Watt University Dubai, Dubai, UAE.
Royal Society Open Science
|November 14, 2025
Summary
This study analyzed social cohesion in Ukraine using online search data. War phases significantly altered social cohesion complexity, with partial invasion showing the most dysfunction.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Complexity Science
- Psycholinguistics
Background:
- Social cohesion is crucial for societal stability.
- Understanding the impact of warfare on social cohesion is vital.
- Dynamical systems theory offers a framework for analyzing complex societal changes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the entropy signatures of different war phases on social cohesion dynamics in Ukraine.
- To quantify social cohesion complexity using psycholinguistic time series data.
- To understand warfare as a systemic shock impacting societal resilience.
Main Methods:
- A systems approach was used to analyze social cohesion.
- Psycholinguistic time series data of online searches for first-person plural pronouns were utilized.
- Sample entropy and refined composite multiscale entropy (RCMSE) were employed to quantify complexity.
Main Results:
- Distinct entropy signatures were observed for different war phases (peace, partial invasion, full invasion).
- Social cohesion entropy decreased under partial invasion, exhibiting more anti-persistent behavior.
- Social cohesion was most dysfunctional during partial invasion, with entropy signatures of full-scale invasion and peace being relatively close.
Conclusions:
- Warfare significantly impacts social cohesion dynamics, acting as a systemic shock.
- Entropy metrics provide insights into the complexity and dysfunction of social cohesion during conflict.
- The methodology offers a framework for monitoring and predicting societal resilience in response to major events.
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