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Rising House Prices, Falling Fertility? How Rising House Prices Widen Fertility Differences between Tenure Groups
Daniël van Wijk1, Peteke Feijten2
1Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, KNAW/University of Groningen, The Hague, The Netherlands. wijk@nidi.nl.
European Journal of Population = Revue Europeenne De Demographie
|November 14, 2025
Summary
Rising house prices decrease fertility for young adults, especially renters, but increase it for long-term homeowners. This housing market dynamic likely contributes to declining birth rates.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Economics
- Sociology
Background:
- Global trend of rapidly increasing house prices in developed nations over the past decade.
- Concurrent decline in fertility rates, particularly among young adults.
- Limited understanding of individual-level mechanisms connecting housing costs and fertility decisions.
Purpose of the Study:
- Investigate the relationship between regional house price changes and fertility.
- Examine the mediating and moderating roles of homeownership in this relationship.
- Understand how housing market dynamics influence fertility behavior.
Main Methods:
- Utilized comprehensive Dutch register data (2012-2023) covering the entire population.
- Linked regional house price variations (NUTS-3 regions) to annual conception risks.
- Analyzed the impact of individual homeownership status and duration on fertility outcomes.
Main Results:
- Increasing house prices correlate with reduced fertility overall.
- Lower fertility is partly explained by decreased homeownership propensity among young adults.
- Renters in expensive markets show decreased fertility, while homeowners exhibit increased fertility.
- A positive home equity effect on fertility is observed for homeowners with over three years of tenure.
Conclusions:
- Rising house prices likely contribute to post-2010 fertility declines in younger cohorts.
- Housing market dynamics exacerbate fertility disparities between homeowners and renters.
- Homeownership duration significantly influences the fertility response to housing market changes.
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