New-Onset Psychiatric Disorders After Lumbar Fusion: Predictors, Timing, and Risk Stratification

Study DesignRetrospective cohort study using a nationally representative inpatient database.ObjectiveTo determine the incidence, timing, and predictors of new-onset psychiatric disorders following lumbar fusion surgery, and to propose a data-driven risk stratification model for early identification and intervention.MethodsWe queried the Nationwide Readmissions Database (2016-2019) to identify adults undergoing elective inpatient lumbar fusion. Patients with preexisting psychiatric diagnoses were excluded. Outcomes included new-onset depression, anxiety, suicidal ideation, and homicidal ideation within 12 months postoperatively. Predictors were assessed using odds ratios. Timing of onset was evaluated with density plots.ResultsAmong 839,576 patients, 12,011 developed depression, 11,828 anxiety, 916 suicidal ideation, and 63 homicidal ideation. Most diagnoses occurred within 90 days postoperatively, with peak incidence around 3 weeks. Opioid use during the index admission significantly increased odds of suicidal ideation (OR 2.13, P = 0.001), anxiety (OR 1.26, P = 0.002), and showed a trend toward depression (OR 1.14, P = 0.087). Medicaid insurance was the strongest predictor of suicidal (OR 3.69) and homicidal ideation (OR 6.41). Female sex and younger age were associated with anxiety and depression; older age was protective against ideation.ConclusionsNew-onset psychiatric disorders are a frequent and early complication following lumbar fusion. Several modifiable and demographic factors - including perioperative opioid use and socioeconomic status - significantly predict risk. These findings underscore the need for structured mental health screening within the first 3 months post-surgery. Implementing a predictive risk stratification tool could enable earlier psychiatric referral, reduce long-term morbidity, and improve both recovery trajectories and overall quality of life.