Does genetic variation in controlled experiments predict phenology of wild plants?

Phenology and the timing of development are often under selection. However, the relative contributions of genotype, environment, and prior developmental transitions to variance in the phenology of wild plants is largely unknown. Individual components of phenology (e.g., germination) might be loosely related with the timing of maturation due to variation in prior developmental transitions. Given widespread evidence that genetic variation in life history is adaptive, we investigated to what degree experimentally measured genetic variation in Arabidopsis phenology predicts phenology of plants in the wild. As a proxy of phenology, we obtained collection dates from nature of 227 naturally inbred Arabidopsis thaliana accessions from across Eurasia. We compared this phenology in nature with experimental data on the descendant inbred lines that we synthesized from two new and 155 published controlled experiments. We tested whether the genetic variation in flowering and germination timing from experiments predicted the phenology of the same lines in nature. We found that genetic variation in phenology from controlled experiments significantly predicts day of collection from wild individuals, as a proxy for date of flowering, across Eurasia. However, local variation in collection dates within a region was not explained by genetic variance in phenology in experiments, suggesting high plasticity across small-scale environmental gradients or complex interactions between the timing of different developmental transitions. While experiments have shown phenology is under selection, understanding the subtle environmental and stochastic effects on phenology may help to clarify the heritability and evolution of phenological traits in nature.