High-resolution global pathways to achieve 100% electricity access in 2030

Area of Science:

• Energy Policy
• Sustainable Development
• Climate Change Mitigation

Background:

• Universal electricity access is a key Sustainable Development Goal, but current policies are insufficient to meet the 2030 target.
• Understanding regional electrification strategies and costs is limited, hindering progress.
• Existing models lack detailed analysis of diverse electrification pathways.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore global scenarios for achieving universal electricity access by 2030.
• To identify least-cost electrification strategies and their associated capacity requirements.
• To assess the impact of integrating climate change mitigation goals into electrification planning.

Main Methods:

• Utilized high-resolution data and energy projections from the IMAGE integrated assessment model.
• Developed scenarios considering baseline development, decent living standards, and climate synergies.
• Analyzed the cost-effectiveness of various electrification strategies, including off-grid solutions.

Main Results:

• Off-grid systems (mini-grids, solar home systems) are the most economical approach for new connections post-2023.
• Universal access necessitates at least 70GW of additional off-grid capacity, primarily for Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Integrating climate goals enhances renewable energy use, cuts CO2 emissions by ~30%, with similar system costs.

Conclusions:

• Current policies will not achieve universal electricity access by 2030.
• Off-grid solutions are crucial for cost-effective electrification, particularly in developing regions.
• Combining electrification with climate mitigation offers environmental benefits without significantly increasing costs.