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Published on: November 10, 2023
Short-term risks of influenza and COVID-19 following influenza infection: A self-controlled case series study
Chao Wang1, Yanlin Gao2, Wei Li2
1Institute of Information and Statistics Center, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Surveillance, Early Warning and Pathogen Research on Emerging Infectious Diseases, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Objectives:
Given the inconsistent existing evidence on viral interference between influenza and COVID-19, this study aimed to investigate the short-term risks of influenza reinfection and COVID-19 infections following an initial influenza episode, in the context of cocirculating influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses.
Methods:
Using a seasonally adjusted self-controlled case series design, we analyzed surveillance data from Beijing, China, collected between February 2023 and June 2025. The study included individuals infected with influenza who subsequently experienced either influenza reinfection or COVID-19 within 18 months after the initial influenza infection.
Results:
The study comprised 17,859 individuals with influenza followed by COVID-19 (flu-COVID) and 34,291 with sequential influenza infections (flu-flu). Influenza infection was associated with a transient increase in the risk of COVID-19 within 6 months (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.39-1.59). In contrast, the risk of influenza reinfection was significantly reduced during the same period (IRR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.39-0.49). Although risk modulation varied across demographic subgroups, results from subgroup and sensitivity analyses were largely consistent.
Conclusion:
Influenza infection may temporarily increase susceptibility to COVID-19 while reducing the risk of influenza reinfection. These findings highlight the importance of targeted surveillance and preventive strategies during influenza peaks to mitigate subsequent COVID-19 burden.
Insights
Influenza infection may increase COVID-19 risk temporarily but reduce reinfection risk. Public health strategies should consider these viral dynamics during peak seasons.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Public Health
Background:
- Inconsistent evidence exists regarding viral interference between influenza and COVID-19.
- Co-circulation of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 necessitates understanding their interaction.
- Short-term risks of reinfection and secondary infections require investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the short-term risks of influenza reinfection after an initial influenza episode.
- To examine the risk of COVID-19 following an initial influenza infection.
- To analyze these risks in the context of co-circulating influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses.
Main Methods:
- Self-controlled case series design utilizing surveillance data from Beijing, China (February 2023 - June 2025).
- Inclusion criteria: individuals with initial influenza infection followed by influenza reinfection or COVID-19 within 18 months.
- Analysis of incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and confidence intervals (CIs).
Main Results:
- Influenza infection transiently increased COVID-19 risk within 6 months (IRR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.39-1.59).
- Influenza infection significantly reduced the risk of influenza reinfection within 6 months (IRR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.39-0.49).
- Findings were consistent across demographic subgroups and sensitivity analyses.
Conclusions:
- Influenza infection may temporarily enhance susceptibility to COVID-19.
- Influenza infection appears to reduce the risk of subsequent influenza reinfection.
- Targeted surveillance and preventive measures during influenza seasons are crucial for managing COVID-19 burden.
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