Short-term risks of influenza and COVID-19 following influenza infection: A self-controlled case series study

Chao Wang1, Yanlin Gao2, Wei Li2

  • 1Institute of Information and Statistics Center, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Surveillance, Early Warning and Pathogen Research on Emerging Infectious Diseases, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.

Abstract

Insights

Influenza infection may increase COVID-19 risk temporarily but reduce reinfection risk. Public health strategies should consider these viral dynamics during peak seasons.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Inconsistent evidence exists regarding viral interference between influenza and COVID-19.
  • Co-circulation of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 necessitates understanding their interaction.
  • Short-term risks of reinfection and secondary infections require investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the short-term risks of influenza reinfection after an initial influenza episode.
  • To examine the risk of COVID-19 following an initial influenza infection.
  • To analyze these risks in the context of co-circulating influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses.

Main Methods:

  • Self-controlled case series design utilizing surveillance data from Beijing, China (February 2023 - June 2025).
  • Inclusion criteria: individuals with initial influenza infection followed by influenza reinfection or COVID-19 within 18 months.
  • Analysis of incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and confidence intervals (CIs).

Main Results:

  • Influenza infection transiently increased COVID-19 risk within 6 months (IRR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.39-1.59).
  • Influenza infection significantly reduced the risk of influenza reinfection within 6 months (IRR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.39-0.49).
  • Findings were consistent across demographic subgroups and sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions:

  • Influenza infection may temporarily enhance susceptibility to COVID-19.
  • Influenza infection appears to reduce the risk of subsequent influenza reinfection.
  • Targeted surveillance and preventive measures during influenza seasons are crucial for managing COVID-19 burden.

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