A lightweight machine learning tool for Alzheimer's disease prediction

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that needs better predictive tools. Using the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set, this study developed machine learning (ML) models and a practical clinical tool for AD prediction.

Data from 52,537 individuals (22,371 with AD) and more than 200 variables were processed with MissForest imputation and genetic algorithm-based selection. Multiple ML models were trained, and interpretability was performed using SHAP and permutation importance. A LightGBM model was refined through iterative backward feature elimination (IBFE) followed by manual refinement.

LightGBM performed best (receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve [ROC-AUC] 0.91, accuracy 82.0%). Key predictors included arthritis, age, body mass index, and heart rate. A 19-feature model retained accuracy (81.2%) and ROC-AUC (0.90).

This lightweight tool predicts AD using mostly routine variables. Limitations include its cross-sectional nature, and would need external validation. An interactive web app and GitHub resource are available.

Developed a lightweight ML based tool using 19 routinely available features.The lightweight model achieved an ROC-AUC of 0.90 for Alzheimer's disease prediction on NACC multicenter data.Genetic algorithm, IBFE, and manual refinement enabled optimal feature selection.Tool hosted on an open-access platform for clinical and research use.SHAP analysis provided model interpretability and feature-level insights.