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Development and validation of a nomogram based on LASSO-logistic regression for predicting carotid atherosclerosis in

Xin-Fu Cao1, Ya-Li Qiu2,3, Zhen-Hua Gu1

  • 1Department of Cardiology, Changzhou Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China.

Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine
|November 20, 2025
PubMed

Insights

This study developed a predictive nomogram to assess carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) risk in hypertensive patients. The nomogram accurately identifies key risk factors, aiding clinical evaluation and early intervention strategies for this prevalent condition.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Vascular Medicine
  • Predictive Analytics

Background:

  • Carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) is a growing concern in hypertensive individuals.
  • Hypertension is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, including CAS.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for CAS in a hypertensive population.
  • To identify key risk factors associated with CAS in hypertensive patients.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a development cohort of 930 hypertensive patients and a validation cohort of 398 hypertensive patients.
  • Employed LASSO and logistic regression to identify significant risk factors.
  • Constructed and validated the nomogram using R software, including Bootstrap resampling, ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.

Main Results:

  • Identified eight significant risk factors for CAS: Age, smoking, diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension duration, physical activity, BMI, LDL, and uric acid.
  • Diabetes mellitus emerged as the most influential factor.
  • The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive accuracy with AUCs of 0.858 (development) and 0.808 (validation).

Conclusions:

  • A robust nomogram for assessing CAS risk in hypertensive patients has been developed.
  • This tool can aid clinicians in risk stratification and personalized management of hypertensive patients at risk for CAS.
Abstract

Keywords:
LASSO regressioncarotid atherosclerosishypertensionlogistic regression analysisnomogram

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