Risk assessment and recidivism among Indigenous and non-Indigenous persons: A meta-analysis

Risk assessment measures are commonly used in forensic and criminal justice settings to evaluate risk of future recidivism. The use of these measures among Indigenous persons has been the subject of clinical, professional, and legal interest. We sought to add to the literature by examining three frequently studied and clinically used risk assessment instruments among Indigenous and non-Indigenous adolescents and adults in international settings: the Hare Psychopathy Checklist scales, the Level of Service Scales, and the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth.

We hypothesized that the established risk assessment measures would predict reoffending among Indigenous samples and would do so at magnitudes comparable to those of non-Indigenous (White majority) samples.

We conducted a series of meta-analyses involving three risk assessment measures and indices of general and violent recidivism. We increased the numbers of studies available, particularly among adolescents, by soliciting researchers and reanalyzing data sets.

The final sample consisted of 86,409 individuals from 45 studies. Our main analyses showed that predictive validity coefficients for Indigenous and non-Indigenous (White majority) samples were similar (median combined rs were .28 and .29, respectively). There was considerable heterogeneity in the magnitudes of effect sizes. Results were not always consistent across age groups, genders, and North American and Australasian samples, and this was particularly true for combinations of variables. There was some evidence that Level of Service Scale Total scores may be associated with lower predictive validity coefficients among Indigenous persons than among non-Indigenous persons.

We discuss the importance of refining and improving risk assessment measures. Findings should be appropriately qualified and interpreted in ways that recognize the impacts of broader sociohistorical contexts on current behaviors. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).