The impact of glycated hemoglobin trajectories on hypertension risk: a retrospective cohort study
Yongbing Sun1, Yu Shen1, Ao Liu1
1Department of Medical Imaging, Zhengzhou University People's Hospital, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.
Insights
Elevated glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and trajectories significantly increase hypertension risk. HbA1c above 5.70% and stable medium-to-high HbA1c patterns are key indicators for hypertension risk assessment.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Endocrinology
- Public Health
Background:
- Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is a key indicator of long-term glucose control.
- HbA1c levels have been associated with the development of hypertension.
- Understanding this relationship is crucial for cardiovascular risk assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between baseline HbA1c levels and hypertension risk.
- To analyze the impact of HbA1c trajectories on hypertension development.
- To identify HbA1c as a potential biomarker for hypertension risk.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of 10,138 adults from health screenings.
- Analysis of hypertension incidence across baseline HbA1c tertiles and trajectories.
- Latent class trajectory modeling (LCTM) and Cox proportional hazards models were used.
Main Results:
- 34.05% of participants developed hypertension during follow-up.
- Highest baseline HbA1c tertile showed significantly increased hypertension risk (HR=1.49).
- Medium and high stable HbA1c trajectories were linked to increased risks (HR=1.38 and HR=2.71, respectively).
- A J-shaped relationship was observed, with an inflection point at HbA1c=5.70%.
Conclusions:
- Elevated baseline HbA1c (>5.70%) and medium-to-high stable HbA1c trajectories significantly elevate hypertension risk.
- HbA1c is a valuable biomarker for assessing hypertension risk in adults.
- These findings support proactive monitoring of HbA1c for cardiovascular health.
Background:
Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) reliably reflects long-term glucose control and has been linked to hypertension development. This study investigates the relationship between baseline HbA1c levels, HbA1c trajectories, and hypertension risk.
Methods:
This retrospective cohort study included 10,138 adults from health screenings at Henan Provincial People's Hospital (January 2018-January 2025). Mean age was 54.03 ± 12.97 years, with 31.44% women and mean follow-up of 43.92 months. We analyzed hypertension incidence across HbA1c groups using Kaplan-Meier curves and identified HbA1c trajectory patterns using latent class trajectory modeling (LCTM). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated associations between baseline HbA1c tertiles, HbA1c trajectories, and hypertension risk. Restricted cubic splines explored dose-response relationships.
Results:
During follow-up, 3,452 participants (34.05%) developed hypertension. After adjustment, participants in the highest baseline HbA1c tertile had significantly increased hypertension risk versus the lowest tertile (HR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.31-1.70). LCTM identified three distinct trajectories: low-stable (5.57 ± 0.36%), medium-stable (6.45 ± 0.59%), and high-stable (8.42 ± 1.39%). Compared to low-stable trajectory, medium-stable and high-stable groups showed significantly increased risks (HR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.24-1.53; HR = 2.71, 95%CI: 2.21-3.32, respectively). Restricted cubic spline analysis revealed a J-shaped relationship with an inflection point at HbA1c = 5.70% (P for nonlinearity < 0.001).
Conclusion:
Elevated baseline HbA1c levels, particularly above 5.70%, and medium-to-high stable HbA1c trajectories significantly increase hypertension risk among adults undergoing health screening. HbA1c could serve as a valuable biomarker for hypertension risk assessment.
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