Rethinking El Salvador's Homicide Problem: Age, Homicide, and Crime Control

Latin America remains one of the most violent regions in the world, with El Salvador reporting among the highest homicide rates globally. Much of the existing research emphasizes structural inequality, civil conflict, and transnational gangs such as Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) as contributors to this violence. Yet little attention has been paid to whether demographic shifts, particularly youth bulges, also contribute to lethal violence. This study examines whether the age distribution of El Salvador's population helps explain homicide trends between 1995 and 2018. Drawing on the criminological concept of the age-crime curve, we assess the relationship between the proportion of youth aged 15-19 and annual homicide rates, while also accounting for inequality and the implementation of militarized policing strategies under Mano Dura. Data were compiled from the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations World Population Prospects, and the World Bank. Analyses include descriptive statistics, contour plots, and regression models using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with Newey-West heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) standard errors. Findings indicate that demographic structure matters: increases in the youth population are positively associated with homicide. However, militarized policing also contributes to heightened violence, suggesting that punitive policies may exacerbate rather than mitigate homicide. Policy implications are discussed, with the findings contributing to broader debates about youth, security policy, and the limits of Mano Dura or militarized policing tactics as a sustainable response to crime in El Salvador and abroad.