Tobacco Control in Botswana: Effectiveness of Tax Changes in Reducing Tobacco Demand

Botswana has one of the highest adult tobacco-use rates in the WHO African Region. Despite measures and policies put in place to control tobacco consumption, there is still a widespread use of tobacco products in the country. This is because demand for tobacco and tobacco products is mostly affected by changes in tobacco prices and related taxes. This study therefore seeks to analyze the responsiveness of cigarette demand to price changes in Botswana.

This study analyses Botswana's conditional price elasticity of cigarette demand using Deaton's model. Deaton's method uses household expenditure surveys, which is good for the African continent, as the data is usually more available than aggregate time-series data on tobacco prices and consumption. The study utilizes cross-sectional data from the 2015/16 Botswana Multi-Topic Household Survey (BMTHS).

The cigarette conditional price elasticity of demand in Botswana is estimated to be -0.86. The results indicate that a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes will reduce cigarette demand by 8.6% among smokers. The results of the conditional price elasticity of demand (-0.86) show that cigarette demand is responsive to price changes in Botswana.

The results provide evidence of how effective a tax increase would be in reducing cigarette demand in Botswana; this is necessary for policy makers when formulating policies targeting tobacco control. These findings provide the first scientific evidence of conditional elasticity on consumption for policymakers in Botswana.

The study provides the first empirical estimates of the conditional price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in Botswana, which fills a gap in the evidence for the local impact of price changes on cigarette demand among smokers in Botswana These findings are expected to guide policymakers, and those involved in tobacco control, in formulating the most effective policies for regulating and controlling the consumption of tobacco in Botswana.