Trend analysis of changes in the incidence of tuberculosis in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2020 based on the Joinpoint...

Although considerable progress has been made in China over the past decade, tuberculosis remains a pressing public health issue. This is also the case in Shenzhen. This study aimed to examine the epidemiological characteristics and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2020, with the aim of informing evidence-based prevention and control strategies and measures.

Data from 2010 to 2020 in Shenzhen were used to calculate crude and age-standardized notification rates of tuberculosis according to the 2010 Chinese Census. Temporal trends were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model to estimate the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change (AAPC).

A total of 63,819 tuberculosis cases were reported from 2010 to 2020 in Shenzhen, of which 41,989 (65.79%) were male and 21,830 (34.21%) were female. The mean age was (35.03 ± 14.30) years, with the highest proportion of cases (21.16%) occurring in the age group of 25-29 years. The annual crude and age-standardized notification rate of tuberculosis was 49.89/100,000 and 54.93/100,000, respectively. A significant declining trend was observed in the overall age-standardized notification rate of tuberculosis (AAPC=-4.24%, P < 0.01), which was consistent in both males (AAPC=-5.18%, P = 0.019) and females (AAPC=-3.34%, P = 0.046). When analyzed by 5-year age intervals, distinct trends were observed across age groups. No statistically significant changes were observed in the four subgroups under 20 years of age. In contrast, five subgroups between 20 and 49 years of age (except for the 30-34 years subgroup) showed significant declines (all AAPC<-3.00%, P < 0.05). Among the seven subgroups aged 50 years and above, although the AAPC did not reach statistical significance, certain years exhibited significant upward or downward fluctuations.

Tuberculosis prevention and control efforts in Shenzhen have achieved considerable progress between 2010 and 2020. However, sustained and targeted health education campaigns are needed to further raise public awareness and strengthen health literacy related to tuberculosis among residents in Shenzhen.