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Ecological Risk-Benefit Analysis for Assisted Colonization.

Rafael D'Andrea1, György Barabás2,3, Sarah E Dalrymple4,5

  • 1Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Assisted colonization (AC), moving species to new areas, can prevent extinction but poses risks. This study proposes a two-step framework to assess AC risks and benefits for biodiversity conservation.

Keywords:
assisted migrationconservation translocationsdisordered systems theoryensemble ecosystem modelsextinction riskmanaged relocationnovel communitiesspecies coexistencestructural stability methodstrait‐based tournament models

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Area of Science:

  • Conservation Biology
  • Ecology
  • Biodiversity Management

Background:

  • Assisted colonization (AC) is a conservation strategy to prevent species extinction by translocating them outside their native range.
  • AC is controversial due to potential negative ecological impacts, including risks to native species and novel interactions, mirroring invasive species concerns.
  • Existing AC guidelines lack case-specific risk-benefit analyses for biodiversity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a comprehensive framework for decision-making regarding assisted colonization (AC) projects.
  • To differentiate between low-risk, high-benefit AC cases and high-risk, low-benefit scenarios.
  • To establish a quantitative approach for assessing AC's impact on resident species and global biodiversity.

Main Methods:

  • Proposed a two-pronged approach: 1) qualitative criteria for clear-cut AC cases, and 2) quantitative analysis for complex cases.
  • Developed seven qualitative criteria to identify AC projects with minimal risk and maximal benefit, or vice versa.
  • Outlined a roadmap for a quantitative system based on community ecology theory to estimate extirpation probabilities.

Main Results:

  • The qualitative criteria can identify obviously suitable or unsuitable AC projects, simplifying decision-making.
  • The proposed framework allows for quantitative risk assessment, estimating the probability of native species' extirpation due to AC.
  • The decision framework recommends AC only if it increases the number of globally extant species compared to inaction.

Conclusions:

  • A structured, two-step approach (qualitative and quantitative) is needed for robust risk assessment in assisted colonization.
  • Further development and large-scale testing of the proposed framework are recommended.
  • Wide consultation is crucial for adopting international guidelines for AC risk assessment to ensure biodiversity protection.