Spatiotemporal Distribution and Meteorological Determinants of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) Occurrence in Bangladesh From...

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary viral disease affecting cattle and buffaloes caused by LSD virus (LSDV), which belongs to the Capripoxvirus genus. The disease was first detected in Bangladesh in 2019 and has since become endemic. This study focuses on analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of LSD cases and examining the relationships between LSD incidence and climatic variables using data collected from 2020 to 2023 in Bangladesh. LSD incidence data from the Department of Livestock Services (DLS) and climate data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) were analyzed via descriptive statistics, box plots, and spatial methods. Hotspots were identified via Getis-Ord Gi ^∗ statistics (Gi ^∗ ), whereas Global Moran's I and local indicators of spatial association (LISA) detected spatial autocorrelation. Associations with climate variables were assessed using Spearman's correlation and modeled through Poisson, quasi-Poisson, and negative binomial regressions. LSD cases in Bangladesh exhibited substantial temporal and spatial variability between 2020 and 2023, with the highest peaks occurring in 2023, mainly from May to November. Spatial analyses revealed evolving hotspots shifting from southeastern coastal districts (e.g., Chattogram, Cox's Bazar) to northern and northwestern regions (e.g., Rajshahi, Rangpur) over time. Spearman's rank correlation revealed significant positive associations between LSD cases and rainfall (r = 0.29), relative humidity (r = 0.37), minimum temperature (r = 0.29), and wind speed (r = 0.22). Regression analyses revealed consistent meteorological influences. In the Poisson model, average sunshine (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 3.57), minimum temperature (IRR = 1.687), and wind speed (IRR = 2.639) significantly increased LSD cases, whereas average temperature had a strong protective effect (IRR = 0.362). This study reveals strong seasonal and climatic influences on LSD outbreaks in Bangladesh, with peaks occurring during the monsoon season and shifting hotspots from southeast to north. These findings emphasize the importance of climate-based surveillance and targeted control measures.