Exit Meta-Analysis on the Effect of HIV on COVID-19 Mortality, Hospitalization, and ICU Admission

Purpose: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the publication of numerous primary studies and meta-analyses; however, conclusive evidence on whether HIV infection influences COVID-19 outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV) is still lacking. This research uses a novel technique, the exit meta-analysis, to conclusively update the evidence of HIV's impact on COVID-19-related mortality, hospitalization, and need for Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission in severe disease. Methods: A search of PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Reviews (CDSR), SCOPUS, CINAHL reviews and Google Scholar databases was conducted up to the 18 January 2024 for meta-analyses and observational studies that reported adjusted associations for the effect of HIV on COVID-19 related mortality, hospitalization, and ICU admission. Evidence from existing meta-analyses was summarized narratively, and an updated meta-analysis was carried out using a bias-adjusted inverse variance heterogeneity model. Subgroup analysis was carried out for age groups and geographical regions. Results: Of 3153 records identified, 20 meta-analyses and 56 primary studies, with a total of 27,936,428 participants, including 655,882 PLHIV, were included. A review of the meta-analyses showed conflicting results for all outcomes. In the updated synthesis, HIV was associated with higher odds of mortality (aOR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.01-1.86, I² = 90.7%) and ICU admission (aOR 1.49, 95% CI: 0.67-2.30, I² = 88.8%), but not hospitalization (aOR 1.11, 95% CI: 0.78-1.48, I² = 97.5%). The results for both ICU admission and hospitalization include the null value, leading to lower certainty. The exit meta-analysis suggested conclusive results for mortality (DAts score = -0.012) and hospitalization (DAts score = -0.014), but not for ICU admission. Conclusions: This exit meta-analysis provides conclusive evidence that HIV increases mortality in people with COVID-19; however, more studies may be required to address ICU admission and hospitalization.