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Modelling seasonal tire-wear particle concentrations within road dust using a logistic-based accumulation model
Woosuk Chung1, Se Hyun Lee1, Minseung Hyun1
1Department of Chemical Engineering, Kwangwoon University, Seoul, 01897, South Korea.
None:
Tire wear particles (TWP) are increasingly recognized as a major contributor to urban road dust and an emerging environmental risk; however, their year-round dynamics and removal mechanisms remain poorly constrained. We developed a probabilistic simulation framework to evaluate TWP concentrations across urban arterial, industrial, and residential roads in Seoul. The model incorporated stochastic rainfall wash-off and probabilistic cleaning events, and the results were validated against measured TWP concentrations. Modeled uncertainty ranges overlapped with field observations, with residential roads showing the closest agreement, while urban and industrial roads were underestimated but remained within observed ranges. Results revealed clear road-type and seasonal dependencies: the lowest concentrations were found on urban roads due to frequent cleaning, the highest concentrations were found on industrial roads with wide variability, and residential roads exhibited strong sensitivity to rainfall, showing sharp declines during the monsoon. Scenario analyses further demonstrated the complementary roles of rainfall and cleaning: when cleaning was eliminated, TWP concentrations markedly increased; enhancing the cleaning efficiency reduced accumulation year-round; the no-rainfall case underscored the irreplaceable role of precipitation in producing the lowest TWP concentrations during summer; and a climate-change scenario with 1.5-fold rainfall indicated divergent road-type responses.
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