Sustainable development goal 3: is Ghana on track with neonatal mortality?

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Demography
• Time Series Analysis

Background:

• Neonatal mortality remains a significant contributor to under-five mortality in Ghana, despite overall child health improvements.
• Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2 targets a reduction in neonatal mortality to 12 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030.
• Understanding historical trends and future projections is crucial for public health policy and intervention strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate neonatal mortality rate trends in Ghana from 1960 to 2022.
• To assess Ghana's progress toward achieving the SDG 3.2 target for neonatal mortality.
• To project future neonatal mortality rates and evaluate the likelihood of meeting the 2030 target.

Main Methods:

• Utilized World Development Indicators (WDI) data spanning from 1960 to 2022.
• Employed the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series model for statistical analysis.
• Data processing and analysis were conducted using Microsoft Excel and R statistical software.

Main Results:

• A consistent decline in neonatal mortality rates was observed throughout the study period.
• The estimated rate for 2023 was 20.59 deaths per 1,000 live births, projected to decrease to 17.60 by 2030.
• Confidence intervals indicate uncertainty, with the 2030 upper bound exceeding the SDG target, suggesting accelerated progress is needed.

Conclusions:

• While Ghana shows a positive trend in reducing neonatal mortality, achieving the SDG 3.2 target by 2030 is not guaranteed.
• Significant acceleration of progress and strategic health interventions are necessary to meet the 2030 goal.
• Findings provide critical insights for policymakers to intensify efforts in reducing neonatal mortality.