Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario simulation of land use landscape pattern in northern Guangxi

In this study, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of land use and landscape pattern in northern Guangxi from 1980 to 2020 were systematically analyzed by using ArcGIS 10.8, Fragstats 4.2 and PLUS models, and the land use structure and landscape pattern under different development scenarios in 2030 were simulated and predicted. The results show that: (1) Between 1980 and 2020, the areas of cropland, forest, and grassland in the northern Guangxi decreased by 307, 140, and 68 km², respectively. While the area of built-up land increased by about 444 km². The land use structure is characterized by 'bidirectional succession and increased artificialization'. (2) The overall landscape pattern showed a trend of 'increased fragmentation and decreased connectivity', and the self-regulation ability of ecological landscape was weakened. (3) The driving analysis shows that land use change is driven by both socio-economic and natural environmental factors, among which population driving factors are dominant. (4) The results of multi-scenario simulation show that the ecological protection scenario can achieve the most compact landscape structure, the highest connectivity and aggregation, which is the optimal path for regional sustainable development. The results of this study can provide scientific basis and theoretical support for the optimal allocation of landscape space and the restoration and reconstruction of ecosystem in northern Guangxi.