A spatiotemporal coupled framework of species phylogeny and ecological interactions: a case study of Tephritidae...

Tephritid fruit flies are among the most damaging horticultural pests in China, and their ranges and co-occurrence patterns are shifting under accelerated trade and a warming climate. Yet cross-species assessments that jointly evaluate niche dynamics, phylogenetic relatedness, and interspecific associations remain scarce, limiting decision-relevant risk mapping. Here we target eight high-impact Tephritidae species in China (Carpomya vesuviana, Bactrocera dorsalis, Zeugodacus cucurbitae, Zeugodacus tau, Bactrocera scutellata, Bactrocera minax, Bactrocera correcta, and Bactrocera latifrons) and aim to quantify current and future suitable ranges, richness hotspots, niche overlap, phylogenetic structure, and association patterns, to support coordinated surveillance and climate-adaptive management.

We coupled ensemble species distribution models (SDM) with ENMTools niche metrics, richness mapping, Hierarchical Modeling of Species Communities for residual species associations, and phylogenetic indices to evaluate spatiotemporal shifts under present climate and a late-century SSP5-8.5 scenario. SDMs achieved mean test area under the curve = 0.93-0.98 and true skill statistics = 0.86-0.95. Hellinger's I niche similarity ranged from 0.56 to 0.96, and geographic range overlap was 0.01-0.80. Under near-current conditions, per-species suitable area was 136.03 × 10⁴ to 292.45 × 10⁴ km²; by the 2090s SSP5-8.5, expansions reached up to 338 × 10⁴ km², with richness hotspots shifting northward into the central, eastern, and Xinjiang regions. The net relatedness index indicated pronounced phylogenetic homogenization (elevated clustering in northern provinces), and facilitative associations-previously concentrated in southern China-expanded across central and northern landscapes under warming.

Warming will enlarge and homogenize suitable habitats for Tephritidae pests and strengthen synergistic interspecific associations, amplifying invasion risk. The proposed spatiotemporal coupled framework yields decision-ready, cross-species risk evidence to guide targeted surveillance and climate-adaptive management. © 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.