Widening Geographical Inequities in DTP Vaccination Coverage and Zero-Dose Prevalence Across Nigeria: An Ecological...

Background/Objectives: Nigeria continues to face major challenges in achieving equitable immunisation coverage, with marked subnational disparities. This study aimed to assess trends in vaccine access and utilisation across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones between 2018 and 2024, focusing on inequities in DTP coverage, dropout rates, and zero-dose prevalence. Methods: We conducted a comparative ecological analysis using secondary data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (2018, 2024) and the 2021 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey/National Immunisation Coverage Survey. Geometric mean coverage for penta 1 (DTP1) and penta 3 (DTP3), DTP1-DTP3 dropout rates, and zero-dose prevalence were calculated for each of the six geopolitical zones and analysed using WHO's Health Equity Assessment Toolkit Plus. Absolute (difference, D) and relative (ratio, R) summary measures of inequality were also assessed. Results: Findings revealed statistically significant differences in indicators across the various regions during the period of study. While the South-East maintained >90% DTP1 coverage, the North-West declined from 37.3% (2018) to 33.4% (2024). In the same period, the absolute inequality (D) in DTP1 coverage increased from 55.3 to 58.4 percentage points. Zero-dose inequities worsened sharply: prevalence in the North-West rose from 25.7% (2021) to 47.4% (2024) compared to ~4% in the South-East, with a relative inequality (R) of 11.29 in 2024. In contrast, service utilisation improved, as dropout rates in the North-West fell from 38.7% (2018) to 14.3% (2024), reducing absolute inequality to 11.0 pp. Conclusions: Despite progress in reducing dropout, access to vaccination services remains highly inequitable, particularly in northern Nigeria. Declines since 2021 suggest systemic fragility compounded by COVID-19-related disruptions. Strengthening sustainable routine immunisation systems and investing in demand generation, especially through social and behaviour change communication, are essential to achieving equity.