Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Universal Rotavirus Vaccination Schedules in Syria

Background: Rotavirus (RV) continues to be the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) globally among children under five. National RV vaccination efforts have lowered morbidity and mortality. Vaccination is a key public health tool to alleviate this substantial burden of RV in middle- and low-income countries. In Syria, RV morbidity accounts for 27% of severe GE. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of introducing rotavirus vaccinations (RVV) into Syria's National Immunization Program. Methods: A decision tree model was developed to assess the cost-saving of two-dose rotavirus vaccinations (Rotarix^®) compared to no vaccination. A birth cohort of 573,944 newborns was simulated throughout a 5-year time frame to capture the near-term health and economic effects. The analysis adopted an incremental cost-saving approach, evaluating a hypothetical 2023 birth cohort from the government's perspective. Outcomes included the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) prevented and the cost per death averted. Model inputs were derived from local data, specifically including healthcare and vaccination costs and deaths attributable to RVGE, the scientific literature, and national/international databases. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) measures the cost of avoiding one disability-adjusted life year (DALY) adopted. Results: Over five years, the two-dose RV strategy would avert 77,500 RVGE cases, reduce outpatient visits by 59%, and reduce severe RV hospitalizations by 41%. The vaccination program would cost $21,817,918 USD and avert $3,239,907 USD in healthcare costs, resulting in a net cost of $18,578,011 USD. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $2098 USD per DALY averted, which is below three times Syria's GDP per capita ($753.6 USD), indicating high cost-effectiveness according to WHO benchmarks. Conclusions: Introducing rotavirus vaccination is highly cost-saving and will result in a substantial reduction in healthcare burdens and lives lost. Policy planners must ensure its inclusion in the National Immunization Programs, ensuring sustainable financing and equitable access.