A warming welcome? Belgium's increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus

Area of Science:

• Vector-borne diseases
• Invasive species ecology
• Public health entomology

Background:

• Aedes albopictus, the Asian tiger mosquito, is an invasive species transmitting dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses.
• Its northward expansion in Europe includes Belgium, raising concerns about permanent establishment.
• The presence of this mosquito poses new epidemiological risks to public health.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the potential for Ae. albopictus establishment in Belgium.
• To assess the likelihood of successful population establishment using a mechanistic model.
• To evaluate the impact of introduction timing and climate variability on establishment.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a mechanistic model to simulate Ae. albopictus introduction events.
• Assessed establishment probability based on simulated scenarios.
• Analyzed the influence of climatic variability and introduction timing.

Main Results:

• Establishment probability is highest in Flanders, particularly with early, multiple summer introductions.
• Interannual climatic variability remains a significant factor in establishment success.
• Potential for virus transmission exists during warmer summers, though transmission windows may be limited.

Conclusions:

• Ae. albopictus establishment in Belgium is plausible, particularly in Flanders.
• Continued introductions and climate change could expand transmission periods and increase outbreak risks.
• Monitoring and control strategies are crucial to mitigate public health threats.