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Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling SAHM

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Predicting Ecological Risks of Alexandrium spp. Under Climate Change: An Ensemble Modeling Approach.

Ru Lan^1,2, Luning Li¹, Rongchang Chen¹

¹China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing 100088, China.

|November 27, 2025

Summary

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by Alexandrium spp. are a growing threat. Salinity and temperature are key factors, with climate change predicted to shift habitats southward, increasing risks in southern China.

Keywords:

Alexandrium spp.ecological risk management ensemble modeling potential distribution species distribution model

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Published on: March 31, 2023

Area of Science:

Marine Ecology
Oceanography
Environmental Science

Background:

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by Alexandrium species pose significant risks to marine ecosystems, fisheries, and public health globally.
Understanding the distribution and environmental drivers of Alexandrium spp. is crucial for effective management and mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

To predict the potential distribution of Alexandrium spp. under current and future climate scenarios using ensemble modeling.
To identify key environmental factors influencing Alexandrium spp. distribution and assess spatiotemporal habitat shifts.
To inform proactive management strategies for HABs in China's coastal waters.

Main Methods:

Employed the Biomod2 ensemble modeling framework with 469 occurrence records and 24 marine environmental variables.
Utilized current and future climate scenarios (including RCP8.5) to project potential species distribution.
Analyzed habitat centroid shifts to understand spatiotemporal dynamics.

Main Results:

The ensemble model demonstrated high accuracy (AUC = 0.998, TSS = 0.977).
Salinity (range and mean) and minimum temperature were identified as dominant environmental drivers.
Suitable habitats are projected to shift southward, with significant expansion under high-emission scenarios, creating new high-risk areas along the South China coast.

Conclusions:

Salinity and temperature are critical factors shaping the ecological niche of Alexandrium spp.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate HAB risks in southern China, necessitating a shift towards proactive management.
The study provides a scientific basis for targeted HAB monitoring and enhancing marine ecological security.