Climate-Driven Shifts in Bat Distributions Reveal Functional Reorganization and Spatial Mismatch Across...

Understanding how climate change may reshape species distributions and affect the associated ecosystem services is critical for sustainable agricultural planning. In this study, we integrated dietary DNA metabarcoding with ensemble species distribution modeling to assess the current and future ecological roles of Miniopterus fuliginosus, a widespread insectivorous bat species in East Asia known for preying on nocturnal agricultural pests. Fecal samples were collected in 2023 from three biogeographically distinct regions of China-Central China (Henan Province) and Southwest China (Guizhou and Yunnan provinces). DNA metabarcoding based on COI gene amplification and Illumina sequencing revealed a consistent dietary dominance of Lepidoptera, particularly families comprising major agricultural pest species such as Noctuidae, Crambidae, and Geometridae. This trophic consistency suggests that M. fuliginosus functions as a moth-specialized generalist predator. Species distribution models were constructed using occurrence records from field surveys, the literature, and the GBIF database, integrating multiple algorithms (GLM, GBM, MaxEnt, RF, and FDA) within an ensemble modeling framework. Habitat suitability was then estimated under current climatic conditions and projected for future distributions under two contrasting climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. While the total suitable area may remain stable or even expand, future projections indicate a progressive poleward shift in range centroids and a divergence in habitat structure. Specifically, SSP1-2.6 is associated with greater spatial cohesion (25.34-31.11%), whereas SSP5-8.5 leads to increased habitat fragmentation and isolation of suitable patches (27.12-33.28%). Overlaying the potential for pest control with habitat projections highlights emerging spatial mismatches between ecological function and climatic suitability, particularly under high-emission trajectories. Our findings underscore the importance of identifying ecological refugia and maintaining landscape connectivity to sustain bat-mediated pest control. This spatially explicit framework offers new insights for integrating biodiversity-based pest management into climate-resilient agricultural strategies.