Modeling the Future Distribution of Trifolium repens L. in China: A MaxEnt Approach Under Climate Change Scenarios

Trifolium repens L. is a protein-rich, versatile Leguminous lawn plant that is widely distributed across global temperate and subtropical regions. As an invasive species originating in Europe, its distribution in China extends from Xinjiang in the West to Taiwan and the Yangtze River Delta in the East, and is widespread throughout Northeast and Central China. However, in recent years, the distribution pattern of T. repens has become increasingly patchy and irregular. Therefore, unraveling the potential distribution and key environmental drivers of T. repens is critical for understanding its ecological role. This study utilized current species distribution data of T. repens and employed the MaxEnt model to simulate its potentially suitable niches across present and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) in China. This study identified Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range) and Bio14 (precipitation of driest month) as the key drivers shaping the distribution of T. repens. Its current suitable habitats are primarily concentrated in the coastal, central, and Taiwan regions of China. Under future climates, these areas are projected to contract overall and shift toward lower latitudes and higher longitudes, with substantial suitable areas remaining only in the Eastern, Southern, and Taiwan regions. This study quantitatively assessed the ecological niche breadth of T. repens and its future spatial distribution under climate change, thereby laying a theoretical foundation for describing the ecological characteristics of this invasive species, conducting monitoring, and implementing further invasion risk management.