Prognosis Prediction Model After Upfront Surgery for Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A Multicenter Study...

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Surgical Oncology
• Gastroenterology

Background:

• Upfront surgery (UFS) is the standard treatment for resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).
• Identifying prognostic factors is crucial for improving patient outcomes after UFS.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) after UFS in resectable PDAC patients.
• To develop and internally validate a prognostic prediction model for OS.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 603 patients undergoing UFS for resectable PDAC (2013-2017).
• Univariate and multivariate analyses to identify OS predictors.
• Construction and internal validation of a prognostic prediction model for OS.

Main Results:

• 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 83.7%, 48.2%, and 37.5%.
• Predictors of OS included tumor size > 2 cm, portal/mesenteric vein contact ≤180°, elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels, and a modified Glasgow Prognostic Score of two.
• The prognostic model for 5-year OS showed an AUC of 0.68 and a concordance index of 0.63.

Conclusions:

• Preoperative prognostic factors for OS in resectable PDAC undergoing UFS were identified.
• A validated prognostic prediction model was developed to estimate OS.
• The model can aid in predicting survival for patients with resectable PDAC undergoing upfront surgery.