Verification of Accuracy of Genomically Enhanced Predicted Transmitting Ability Techniques in Predicting Milk and Fat...

This study evaluated the predictive performance of genomically enhanced predicted transmitting abilities for milk (gPTAM) and fat yield (gPTAF) in 986 first-lactation Holstein cows from 25 herds in Taiwan. Ordinary least squares and linear mixed models revealed significant positive associations between genomic predictions and observed yields (milk: β = 1.201, R² = 0.469; fat: β = 1.444, R² = 0.507). Incorporating herd and birth-year effects improved model fit and reduced residual variability. Five-fold cross-validation confirmed the robustness of the full mixed model, with predictive R² increasing to 0.293 for milk and 0.363 for fat, distinct from the OLS R² (0.469 and 0.507) representing phenotypic variation explained, indicating moderate predictive ability of genomic PTA values under subtropical production conditions. Model adequacy checks supported appropriate model specification, with only a mild outlier signal in the milk model. Regional analysis revealed a significant genotype-by-environment interaction for PTAF (p = 0.018) but not for PTAM, indicating reduced prediction accuracy in environmentally variable regions and highlighting trait-specific environmental sensitivity. Quartile stratification by gPTA and Net Merit Score demonstrated clear yield gradients, confirming both the predictive and economic value of genomic evaluations under subtropical dairy production systems.