Mind the Gap Between Estimated Needs and Current Resources in Chronic Kidney Disease

Area of Science:

• Nephrology
• Public Health
• Healthcare Resource Management

Background:

• Chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence has reached approximately 10% globally.
• An aging population and advanced treatments increase demand for nephrology services.
• Estimating resource needs is crucial for managing the growing CKD population.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate healthcare resource requirements for managing CKD patients in the Padua district.
• To identify discrepancies between estimated needs and available resources.
• To propose strategies for addressing resource gaps in nephrology care.

Main Methods:

• Utilized CKD prevalence data and Italian Statistics Institute (ISTAT) information for the Padua district.
• Calculated estimated CKD patient numbers, outpatient visit frequency, and nephrologist requirements.
• Assessed current dialysis seat availability against projected needs for CKD stage 5 patients.

Main Results:

• Padua district has an estimated 31,139 CKD patients, with 540 in stage 5.
• Daily outpatient visits estimated at 178 require 12 full-time nephrologists; currently, only two are full-time.
• Dialysis seats (264 total) are insufficient for the 540 CKD stage 5 patients.

Conclusions:

• Significant deficits in nephrologists and dialysis resources exist in the Padua Healthcare district.
• Outpatient clinic demand necessitates 4-6 times more nephrologists than currently available.
• A multi-faceted approach including general practice collaboration, telemedicine, and public awareness is recommended.