Exploring the Role of Genetic Diversity and Cultural Norms in COVID-19 Vulnerability: A Global Analysis

The COVID-19 disease outbreak is the deadliest viral pandemic our generation has experienced, and much uncertainty remains over the varying vulnerability of different populations to the virus. This study investigates whether long-term evolutionary processes, such as genetic diversity and culturally embedded behavioural norms, can help explain why countries experienced different levels of COVID-19 infections and mortalities. Using a sample of 133 countries, we find that populations with higher expected genetic heterozygosity and greater historical exposure to infectious diseases are associated with lower COVID-19 case and death rates. We reveal two distinct pathways through which these effects manifest. Firstly, populations that migrated further from the evolutionary origins of Homo sapiens in East Africa exhibit lower genetic heterozygosity, which, in turn, is linked to greater susceptibility to COVID-19. Secondly, regions with higher historical disease prevalence tend to develop collectivist cultural norms and behaviours that are shaped to reduce disease transmission, which appear to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. These findings suggest that differences in vulnerability are not random but rather deeply rooted in genetic and cultural evolution. The analysis remains robust after accounting for socioeconomic, geographical, and institutional controls. Our findings offer policymakers fresh perspectives by integrating genetic theory and sociocultural dynamics into contemporary public health strategies.