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Week-by-Week Predictive Value of External Load Ratios on Injury Risk in Professional Soccer: A Logistic Regression

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Acute:Chronic Workload Ratios (ACWRs) can predict non-contact injuries in soccer players. Moderate-speed running and sprinting ACWRs are key indicators, helping optimize training load and reduce injury risk.

Keywords:
ACWRfootballinjury predictioninjury preventionprofessional soccer

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Area of Science:

  • Sports Science
  • Injury Prevention
  • Biomechanics

Background:

  • Non-contact injuries are a significant concern in professional soccer.
  • Accurate prediction of injury risk is crucial for optimizing player performance and longevity.
  • Acute:Chronic Workload Ratios (ACWRs) are increasingly used to monitor training load.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the week-by-week predictive capability of ACWRs for non-contact injuries in elite soccer players.
  • To identify specific workload metrics that are most effective in predicting injury risk.
  • To establish practical injury risk thresholds for training load management.

Main Methods:

  • A cohort of 40 professional soccer players was monitored using GPS over two seasons.
  • Binomial logistic regression and ROC curve analyses were applied to ACWR metrics (total distance, moderate-to high-speed running, sprinting, acceleration, deceleration) in the four weeks preceding injury.
  • Statistical significance was assessed using p-values and adjusted for multiple comparisons with the false discovery rate (FDR) correction (q < 0.05).

Main Results:

  • ACWR metrics for moderate-speed running (15-20 km/h) and sprinting (>25 km/h) demonstrated significant predictive value for non-contact injuries.
  • The ACWR for moderate-speed running (DSR15-20) showed the highest predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.811) in Week 3 prior to injury.
  • Sprinting ACWR (DSR>25) was also a significant predictor across Weeks 1-4 (AUC = 0.709-0.755).
  • Acceleration and deceleration metrics showed initial significance but lost it after FDR correction.
  • Total distance and high-speed running ACWRs were weaker predictors.
  • After FDR correction, only DSR15-20 and DSR>25 remained statistically significant predictors (q < 0.05).
  • Multivariable models confirmed the independent predictive value of DSR15-20 and DSR>25, adjusted for age and playing position.

Conclusions:

  • Weekly monitoring of ACWRs provides a practical method for profiling non-contact injury risk in elite soccer.
  • Specific ACWR metrics, particularly for moderate-speed running and sprinting, can effectively identify players at higher risk.
  • This approach allows training staff to implement targeted load management strategies to minimize injury incidence.