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Quantum cognition and projection bias.

Raymond Hawkins1, Evan Walsh1

  • 1Wyant College of Optical Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721-0094, USA.

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
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Summary

Quantum probability interference accurately models human projection bias, offering a new approach beyond classical decision theories. This quantum cognition model enhances economic decision-making predictions.

Keywords:
behavioural economicsprojection biasquantum cognitionquantum economics

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Science
  • Quantum Mechanics
  • Economics

Background:

  • Classical decision-making models, including expected utility theory, struggle to explain certain human biases.
  • Projection bias, where individuals overestimate the extent to which their current preferences will persist in the future, violates classical probability laws.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To apply quantum mechanical probability concepts to cognitive science for improved modeling of human decision-making.
  • To explain projection bias and its inconsistencies with classical probability and expected utility theory using quantum probability interference.

Main Methods:

  • Leveraging dynamic geometric principles from quantum theory.
  • Applying Khrennikov's contextual probability model.
  • Utilizing the concept of probability interference.

Main Results:

  • Quantum probability interference successfully explains projection bias.
  • The model accounts for violations of the classical law of total probability and expected utility theory.
  • Khrennikov's contextual probability model was effectively applied to existing studies on hunger and projection bias.

Conclusions:

  • Probability interference offers an effective and accurate method for modeling projection bias.
  • Quantum cognition, through probability interference, provides a valuable framework for understanding economic decision-making.
  • This research expands the application of quantum cognition principles into the field of economics.