Recurrence Patterns in a Large Contemporary Cohort of Patients With Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer

Patients with NMIBC frequently experience recurrences. Yet, the timing and characteristics of subsequent recurrences are understudied. We aim to describe subsequent recurrences in a large, contemporary, population-based cohort.

We included 1915 patients from the UroLife study and the Nijmegen Bladder Cancer Study, diagnosed with primary NMIBC between 2011 and 2021. The conditional 1-, 3- and 5-year risks of first to fourth recurrence were calculated using Kaplan-Meier risks, stratified by clinicopathological factors. Patterns of subsequent tumors were described and visualized.

We observed 671 first recurrences and 400 subsequent recurrences. The 3-year conditional recurrence risks for first, second and third recurrence were 31%, 45%, and 54%, respectively, and were similar for NMIBC risk groups. Recurrence after a low-, intermediate- or high-risk tumor (either primary or recurrent) was again of low-, intermediate- or high-risk in 74%, 62% and 44% of cases, respectively. Ten patients with low/intermediate-risk NMIBC and 89 patients with high-risk NMIBC progressed to MIBC or mBC. Seven out of these ten (70%) and 13 out of these 89 (15%) patients had a high-risk recurrence before progression. This study was limited to a patient cohort from The Netherlands.

Our study provides reliable estimates of recurrence rates and patterns in NMIBC from a large, contemporary, population-based cohort. Recurring NMIBC tumors often exhibit similar clinicopathological characteristics, and patients with primary low- or intermediate-risk NMIBC that progresses to MIBC/mBC often have a high-risk recurrence before progression. These results can inform research into NMIBC recurrences and surveillance schedules.