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Updated: Jan 10, 2026

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Global land desertification risk assessment.

Yu Ren1, Shengchun Xiao2, Xiaomei Peng2

  • 1Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.

Journal of Environmental Management
|November 27, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Over 43% of the globe faces high desertification risk, driven primarily by climate quality. Understanding these global desertification hotspots is crucial for effective land management and combating land degradation.

Keywords:
Driving factorsGlobal desertificationMEDALUS-ESARisk

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Ecology
  • Geography

Background:

  • Desertification is a critical global environmental challenge.
  • Understanding desertification risk and drivers is vital for international agreements.
  • Current global desertification assessments are limited in scope.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess global desertification risk in 2020.
  • To identify key drivers of desertification at a global scale.
  • To inform strategies for combating desertification.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the enhanced Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use-Environmentally Sensitive Area (MEDALUS-ESA) model.
  • Integrated multifaceted evaluation indicators across four key aspects.
  • Assessed global desertification risk using 2020 data.

Main Results:

  • 43.09% of the global area is at high or extreme risk of desertification.
  • Low and moderate risk areas constitute 35.52% and 21.39% respectively.
  • High-risk regions are concentrated in the Mediterranean, Africa, East Asia, and South America.

Conclusions:

  • Climate quality is the primary driver of global desertification risk.
  • Vegetation and management quality also significantly contribute to desertification.
  • Findings provide guidance for global and regional desertification management.