[Analysis and prediction of periodontal disease burden among the elderly in China from 1990 to 2021]

Objective: To assess the trends in the burden of periodontal disease among individuals aged 60 years and above in China from 1990 to 2021, thereby providing a scientific foundation for the development of targeted prevention and control strategies for periodontal disease in the elderly. Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), key indicators including incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates were analyzed. Age-standardized rates were determined using the global standard population. Trends in the disease burden of periodontal disease among the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to forecast the disease burden from 2022 to 2036. Results: The annual average percentage changes (AAPC) in the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs due to periodontal disease among individuals aged 60 years and above in China from 1990 to 2021 were 3.215% (95%CI: 3.149%-3.281%, P<0.05), 3.161% (95%CI:3.037%-3.286%, P<0.05), and 3.091%(95%CI: 2.887%-3.296%, P<0.05), respectively. The results indicated that the average annual change trends of the number of incident cases, number of prevalent cases, and number of DALYs were real upward trends. Compared with other age groups, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs were the highest among the population aged 60-69 years. The AAPC for age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence, and DALY rates were -0.012% (95%CI:-0.031%-0.008%, P>0.05), 0.023% (95%CI:-0.070%-0.116%, P>0.05), and 0.013% (95%CI:-0.089%-0.115%, P>0.05), respectively. This indicated that the average annual change trends of the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized DALY rate might be caused by random fluctuations. Males exhibited higher prevalence and DALY rates than females across all age groups (P<0.05), whereas the incidence rates showed minimal differences between males and females across all age groups. The ARIMA forecast model indicated that the age-standardized incidence rate among males in the elderly population in China was relatively stable, while that among females showed a downward trend; the age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates followed a pattern of "decline-rise-decline". Conclusions: The disease burden of periodontal disease among Chinese adults aged 60 and above showed an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2021, with males and individuals aged 60-69 identified as high-risk groups. With the exacerbation of aging, the prevention and control situation remains severe, necessitating the implementation of gender-differentiated interventions to reduce the disease burden.