A method to identify prescription drug targets for health technology reassessment

The simultaneous existence of low-value health care and underutilization of high-value care are global problems. Health technology reassessment (HTR) aims to optimize the value for money of technologies already in use within health care. Identifying candidate interventions for HTR remains challenging. Therefore, we tested a novel method to identify candidate outpatient prescription drugs for HTR through practice variation.

We used administrative data for all publicly funded outpatient prescriptions dispensed to persons aged 65 or older in Alberta in 2023. Through quantitative comparison of funnel plots for Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classes at the fourth level stratified by prescriber specialty, variation in prescription dispensation rates between prescribers was used to estimate three outcomes: the number of prescribers affected, the number of patients affected, and the potential budgetary impact. We ranked combinations of ATC class and prescriber specialty in descending order for each outcome, with use above and below the mean considered separately.

We analyzed data on 17.5 million dispensations, encompassing more than 8,000 prescribers and approximately 600,000 patients. The top ATC class-prescriber specialty combinations for each outcome showed high similarity above and below control limits while exhibiting minimal overlap between outcomes.

Our method successfully identified ATC class-prescriber specialty combinations with marked variation in use, for potential advancement through the HTR process. Depending on the perspective of those undertaking HTR of prescription drugs, different outcomes may be useful in technology prioritization. To make the ATC class-prescriber specialty combinations actionable, future efforts should focus on exploring the patients affected.