[Analysis of Peak Carbon Status and Influencing Factors in Peak Carbon Pilot Cities]

Cities are the key area for realizing peak carbon, and promoting low-carbon transformation in cities is an important tool for China to achieve the dual-carbon target. The characteristic reform programs of peak carbon pilot cities provide good references and guidance for other cities in China to reach the peak carbon goal. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to construct a method for judging the city's carbon peak status, and the carbon emissions of 25 carbon peak pilot cities from 2006 to 2022 were judged to reach the peak. The results showed that: ① There were three cities in the platform period, and ② there were 22 cities that had not reached the peak. Excluding Karamay City and Heihe City, which had missing data, the 23 peak carbon pilot cities were subjected to grey correlation analysis of carbon emission influencing factors. GDP per capita and urbanization rate were the factors with higher correlation, while the proportion of secondary industry and energy intensity showed a lower correlation. The results of the correlation rankings of the cities for various emission types were closely related to the development of the region. For example, Ordos City and Yulin City, which had high carbon emissions and high growth rates, were screened for carbon emission prediction. The STIRPAT carbon emission prediction model was constructed, and when combined with different scenarios, it was predicted that Ordos City could realize the goal of carbon peak in 2030 in all three scenarios, and Yulin City could realize the carbon peak in 2030 only under the strengthened low-carbon scenario.