[Influencing Factors and Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emissions of Transportation Sector in Guizhou]

In the context of China's "dual carbon" goals, Guizhou Province, as an underdeveloped region, faces the dual challenges of development and emission reduction. This study focused on the transportation sector in Guizhou, by employing an extended STIRPAT model and scenario analysis to examine carbon emission trends, influencing factors, and future development paths from 2006 to 2020. The results indicate: ① Between 2006 to 2020, carbon emissions from transportation sector in Guizhou grew at an average annual rate of 8.370%, with a slowdown during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and carbon emission intensity gradually approaching the national average. ② The extended STIRPAT model analysis revealed that per capita GDP and urbanization rate were the main drivers of carbon emission growth, contributing 63.420% and 22.673%, respectively. Path analysis emphasized the need to balance short- and long-term environmental impacts in promoting economic growth, urbanization, and transportation electrification. ③ Among six predictive scenarios constructed, the low-carbon scenario was the most suitable for future development in Guizhou, projecting peak carbon emissions of 24.631 61 million tons in 2035. Based on these findings, the study proposed emission reduction strategies, including optimizing transportation structure, improving energy efficiency, and promoting low-carbon industrial transformation, providing scientific guidance for Guizhou and other underdeveloped regions for developing low-carbon strategies in the transportation sector.