[Dynamic Evaluation and Obstacle Factor Diagnosis of the Coordinated Development of Digital Transformation and...

Amid China's transition toward high-quality economic development and green low-carbon transformation, old industrial cities, as critical carriers of the traditional industrial system, face dual pressures and challenges: accelerating digital transformation to upgrade the economic structure while strictly controlling pollutant emissions to meet low-carbon development goals. Based on data from 95 old industrial cities across China between 2010 and 2022, this study comprehensively evaluates the levels of digital transformation and pollution reduction-carbon reduction development using methods such as combined objective weighting and weighted summation. Additionally, it employs the coupling development and obstacle factor diagnosis models to analyze the level of coordinated development and the key constraints in the digital and green transformation of these cities. The findings are as follows: ① Based on the results of the coordinated development index for digital transformation and pollution and carbon reduction in 2022 and the characteristics of different development stages, the 95 old industrial cities could be categorized into three types: severely imbalanced (20 cities), primarily coordinated (43 cities), and well-coordinated (32 cities). ② Although the coordinated development index for digital transformation and pollution and carbon reduction showed an upward trend, there were significant differences across regions and city tiers. Eastern regions and second-tier cities exhibited higher levels of coordinated development, whereas central and western regions, Northeast China, and lower-tier cities lagged behind. ③ Obstacle factor identification revealed that technological innovation capabilities (e.g., the proportion of software business revenue in GDP and enterprise R&D expenditure) and infrastructure construction (e.g., optical cable line length and internet broadband access ports) were the main barriers to digital transformation in old industrial cities. Meanwhile, pollutant emissions (e.g., sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides) remained the primary obstacles in pollution and carbon reduction. Based on these findings, the study proposes suggestions to promote the coordinated development of digital transformation and pollution and carbon reduction in old industrial cities by enhancing technological innovation capabilities, improving infrastructure construction, and strengthening pollution control.