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Deciphering the causes of lake expansion and shrinkage in India using long-term satellite data
1Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India.
Abstract:
This study investigates changes in surface area for 14,308 lakes larger than 0.05 sq. km across India during 2000-2021, categorized by climate zones. Lake surface areas are affected by climatic factors such as precipitation, temperature, and evaporation as well as land cover changes that impact hydrological and ecological processes. Using monthly lake surface area data and PCMCI + causal analysis on 1563 lakes larger than 1 sq. km, it was found that 434 lakes exhibited significant causal links with precipitation (166 lakes), evaporation (69 lakes), temperature (76 lakes), and land cover changes (198 lakes). Analysis across the five major climate zones (Koppen Geiger climate classification (Beck et al., 2018; Kriticos et al., 2012)), namely Tropical, Temperate, Polar, Cold and Arid, reveals that precipitation acts as the only significant driver of lake area dynamics in Polar regions, while land cover changes play the most influential role in Cold regions.Tropical and Arid zones displayed mixed effects from both land cover and precipitation. Case studies of Sriram Sagar, Hazira, and Sambhar Salt Lakes highlight distinct lake-specific responses to climatic and land cover factors. These results enhance understanding of the complex drivers shaping lake surface area dynamics across India's varied environments.
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