Risk Factor Assessment and Predictive Modeling for Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia: Design and Clinical...

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is associated with poor patient outcomes. Early identification of high-risk patients remains a major clinical challenge. We aimed to develop and validate a multimodal hybrid neural network (MM-HNN) for improved VAP prediction by integrating multisource data from a retrospective cohort.

This single-center, retrospective study analyzed data from 213 adult patients who received invasive mechanical ventilation for >48 h. The MM-HNN incorporated three data types: 1) computed tomography (CT) features quantifying consolidation volume through three-dimensional residual neural network-50; 2) dynamic ventilator parameters including fraction of inspired oxygen and positive end-expiratory pressure analyzed via long short-term memory networks; and 3) clinical predictors refined via least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify six key variables.

The model achieved an area under the curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.80-0.91), outperforming the clinical pulmonary infection score (p = 0.021). SHapley Additive exPlanation analysis revealed Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score and CT consolidation volume as primary contributors. The system provided early warnings with 87.5% accuracy (median lead time: 1.5 days), which was associated with a significant increase in appropriate antibiotic use from 68.3% to 92.1% (p = 0.016).

The MM-HNN demonstrates the feasibility of accurate, interpretable VAP risk prediction through multimodal data integration. This artificial intelligence framework provides a clinically actionable tool for dynamic risk assessment, enabling preemptive interventions and improved antibiotic stewardship.