Exploring spatial variation and multilevel modeling of malaria prevalence among children aged 6-59 months based on...

Malaria is a life-threatening infectious disease caused by parasites of the genus Plasmodium transmitted through the bite of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes, which act as vectors of the disease. It affects approximately 219 million people globally and results in 435,000 deaths each year. Fever, chills, and exhaustion are among of the signs of this illness. If left untreated, these symptoms can develop into serious problems like anemia, respiratory distress, and even organ failure. By identifying determinants related to malaria prevalence, this study supports evidence-based national malaria prevention and control initiatives. The results help improve decision-making for malaria control efforts and guide focused public health initiatives by identifying areas with a high malaria burden.

Data from the 2021 Niger Malaria Indicator Survey (NMIS) is used, focusing on RDT-confirmed malaria cases in children aged 6-59 months. The dataset includes individual, household, and community-level variables, such as age, household income, education, healthcare access, and geographic coordinates. Spatial distribution of malaria prevalence is first visualized through maps and hot spot analysis to identify areas with high and low malaria rates. Random effects are incorporated to capture unobserved heterogeneity between regions and communities, allowing for more accurate estimates of malaria prevalence by adjusting for spatial clustering. Multilevel logistic regression models are applied to account for the hierarchical structure of the data. Model fit is evaluated using standard criteria (AIC, BIC and DIC), and diagnostics are performed to ensure reliability.

1121 (23.7%) of the 4724 children aged 6 to 59 months who were examined had positive RDT results for malaria. Malaria prevalence in Niger among children aged 6-59 months is significantly clustered (Moran's I = 0.434, p < 0.001), revealing distinct hotspots and cold spots unlikely due to chance. Model III provides a better fit for RDT prevalence among children aged 6-59 months with malaria, as indicated by the smallest AIC, BIC, and deviation statistics compared to other reduced models. Malaria prevalence was associated with factors, including child age, anemia levels, maternal education, the number of children sleeping under bed nets, the use of insecticide-treated nets, the number of children aged 5 and under, as well as residence and region.

The findings show that malaria prevalence among children aged 6-59 months in Niger is significantly influenced by factors such as child age, anemia levels, maternal education, and bed net usage, emphasizing the need for improved coverage of insecticide-treated nets and tailored interventions based on local conditions.