Carbon sequestration and tourist land use dynamics: Understanding the effects of urbanization and afforestation

Achieving net-zero emissions and combating climate change relies on effective carbon sequestration, with forests as critical carbon sinks. This study examines the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on carbon sequestration from 1993 to 2023. LULC classification was performed using a supervised decision tree classifier on Landsat imagery (1993, 2003, 2013, 2023), and carbon storage was quantified using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) carbon model (v3.14.1), incorporating four carbon pools (aboveground, belowground, soil, and dead organic matter. Forest area increased by 54%, from 1,449.98 to 2,235.78 km², leading to a carbon storage rise from 19.821 × 10⁶ Mg to 30.563 × 10⁶ Mg, driven by afforestation efforts under the Billion Tree Tsunami (BTT) project. Conversely, cropland decreased by 13.8%, with a carbon storage loss of 1.772 × 10⁶ Mg, while grassland declined by 19.48%, losing 9.37 × 10⁶ Mg of carbon. Urban expansion, marked by a 1,585% increase in built-up areas, further reduced carbon storage through cropland and grassland conversion. Spatial clustering and hotspot analyses confirmed significant carbon storage patterns influenced by afforestation efforts. Moderate gains in wetlands and bare land carbon storage reflect the dynamic nature of regional LULC changes. This study highlights the dual challenges of urban growth and agricultural land conversion against the backdrop of successful large-scale afforestation initiatives like BTT. It highlights the importance of spatial analysis, remote sensing, and high-resolution mapping in monitoring and managing carbon sequestration, giving critical insights for environmental planning and climate change mitigation methods.