Emerging infectious disease dynamics with compliance and isolation resource constraints

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Public Health

Background:

• Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) pose significant threats.
• Isolation strategies are crucial but often limited by resources and public compliance.
• The combined impact of these limitations on EID control is not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the nonlinear interaction between limited resource capacity and imperfect public compliance in EID control.
• To analyze the conditions under which isolation strategies may fail despite high compliance or low reproduction numbers.
• To provide a framework for optimizing public health interventions.

Main Methods:

• Development of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) model.
• Incorporation of a saturation function for resource limits and a compliance parameter.
• Theoretical analysis including backward bifurcation and numerical simulations.

Main Results:

• A resource-driven backward bifurcation indicates that reducing the basic reproduction number below 1 may be insufficient for elimination with low isolation capacity.
• A paradox: high compliance can amplify infection risk under severe resource constraints.
• Identification of dynamic regimes and the impact of different isolation strategies.

Conclusions:

• Increasing isolation resources and ensuring adequate compliance are vital for reducing infection risk and controlling EIDs.
• Inadequate isolation resources can lead to elevated infection risks, even with high compliance.
• Synchronizing resource allocation with behavioral interventions is crucial, especially in early outbreak stages, for precision public health.