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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jan 9, 2026

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Phase Boundaries and Critical Transitions in Coupled Epidemic-Behavioral Systems.

Hsuan-Wei Lee1, Vincent Cheng-Sheng Li2

  • 1College of Health, Lehigh University, Pennsylvania, USA. hsl324@lehigh.edu.

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|December 2, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Epidemics involve complex feedback between disease spread and human behavior. Widespread cooperation through self-isolation doesn't always control epidemics, revealing critical phenomena in disease dynamics.

Keywords:
Epidemic modelingEvolutionary game theoryIsolation behaviorPhase transitionsSpatial dynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Complex Systems
  • Game Theory

Background:

  • Epidemics are nonlinear adaptive processes driven by pathogen spread and human behavior.
  • Individual decisions on protective measures create feedback loops influencing disease dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the co-evolution of strategy choice and infection pressure in epidemics.
  • To investigate how individual behavior and disease spread interact within a theoretical agent model.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a lattice-based agent model fusing SIS contagion with evolutionary game theory.
  • Analyzed a four-dimensional parameter space to understand strategy adoption and infection dynamics.
  • Modeled behavior-dependent transmission and strategy updates using a Fermi rule.

Main Results:

  • Identified sharp phase transitions between cooperative and defective regimes based on transmission, recovery, risk perception, and costs.
  • Observed a paradox: high isolation adoption paradoxically sustained endemic infection.
  • Demonstrated extreme sensitivity to changes in isolation costs and cross-infection coupling, indicating critical phenomena.

Conclusions:

  • Epidemic-behavioral coupling is a nonlinear dynamical system with emergent spatial organization and critical phenomena.
  • Widespread cooperation does not guarantee epidemic control, highlighting complex relationships between individual decisions and public health.
  • Findings require empirical validation for practical application in managing epidemics.