Flexible school attendance strategies for epidemic outbreaks: simulation-based decision support

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health Policy
• Educational Management

Background:

• Emerging infectious diseases pose challenges due to initial uncertainty in transmission characteristics.
• The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted significant disruptions in education and society.
• Balancing strict infection control with educational continuity and social stability is crucial in schools.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a framework for evaluating and adjusting infection control measures in educational settings.
• To adapt strategies based on evolving knowledge of disease characteristics at different outbreak stages.
• To inform decision-making for educational continuity and social stability.

Main Methods:

• Proposed a framework to assess infection control measures at early, middle, and late stages of an emerging infectious disease.
• Utilized simulations to verify the framework's value and compare strategies.
• Evaluated UNESCO-recommended staggered school attendance strategies against various disease parameters.

Main Results:

• The optimal infection control intervention depends on specific disease characteristics (e.g., latent period, transmission potential).
• The framework facilitates the selection of appropriate school strategies aligned with disease knowledge and socio-economic factors.
• Effectiveness of interventions varied significantly with disease parameters, underscoring the framework's utility.

Conclusions:

• A phased framework for adjusting school infection control measures was proposed and validated by simulations.
• The framework enables selection of staggered school attendance methods that balance public health with educational and social needs.
• The framework's adaptability to other settings (workplaces, public facilities) and future research directions were discussed.